Nick Bostom's 'When Will Computers Be Smarter Than Us?' online in The AI Report (Forbes.com)
Can machines think? In 1950, Alan Turing, considered by some to be the father of modern computing, published a paper in which he proposed that, "If, during text-based conversation, a machine is indistinguishable from a human, then it could be said to be 'thinking' and, therefore, could be attributed with intelligence." He predicted that a computer would pass this "Turing Test" by the end of the century. That hasn't happened--yet. But the question continues to provoke and inspire. AI might be just around the corner, or it might be centuries away.
The full report (divided into three sections, Intelligence, Robotics and Living with AI) can be accessed here.