At the recent FHI Winter Intelligence conference on machine intelligence, an informal poll was conducted to elicit the views of the participants on the emergence of machine intelligence. This report summarizes the results
The main views expressed by the participants appear to be: human-level machine intelligence, whether due to a de novo AGI or biologically inspired/emulated systems, has a macroscopic probability to occurring mid-century. This development is more likely to occur from a large organisation than as a smaller project. The consequences might be potentially catastrophic, but there is great disagreement and uncertainty about this - radically positive outcomes are also possible.