Global catastrophic risks are those that pose serious threats to human well-being on a global scale. An immensely diverse collection of events could constitute global catastrophes: they range from volcanic eruptions to pandemic infections, nuclear accidents to worldwide tyrannies, out-of-control scientific experiments to climatic changes, and cosmic hazards to economic collapse.
Global catastrophes have occurred many times in history, even if we only count disasters causing more than 10 million deaths. A very partial list of examples includes the An Shi Rebellion (756-763), the Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864), and the famine of the Great Leap Forward in China, the Black Death in Europe, the Spanish flu pandemic, the two World Wars, the Nazi genocides, the famines in British India, Stalinist totalitarianism, and the decimation of the native American population through smallpox and other diseases following the arrival of European colonizers. Many others could be added to this list.
A special focus for the FHI is the study of existential risks. These form a sub-category of global catastrophic risks, in which an adverse outcome would either cause the extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically destroy its future potential. It would spell an end to the human story. Because of the extreme severity of existential risks, they deserve extremely careful attention even if their probability could confidently be assessed to be very small. Reduction of existential risk is of singularly high expected utility. A necessary first step toward mitigation is improved understanding. The study of existential risk, however, faces a number of distinctive methodological challenges.
The problems we are working on in relation to global catastrophic and existential risk include (but are not limited) to the following:
- What strategies should be pursued to reduce the risk of bioterrorism and other threats arising from the misuse of biotechnology?
- How should we assess risks for which model uncertainty is the dominating factor?
- What are the most probable existential risks?
- How can we develop an appropriate framework for analyzing and assessing existential risk?
- How can we best reduce risks arising from expected future technological developments, such as human enhancement, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence?
- How can we ensure that our methods of estimating existential risks are free from bias and systematic error?
- When mitigating risks within complex systems, how can we ensure that the strategies we employ cost-effectively reduce the overall level of risk without introducing major new risks?
To visit the Global Catastrophic Risks website please click here.
