Mission

"Existential Risk Reduction as the Most Important Task for Humanity"

Existential risks are those that threaten the entire future of humanity. Many theories of value imply that even relatively small reductions in net existential risk have enormous expected value. Despite their importance, issues surrounding human�]extinction risks and related hazards remain poorly understood. In this paper, I clarify the concept of existential risk and develop an improved classification scheme. I discuss the relation between existential risks and basic issues in axiology, and show how existential risk reduction (via the maxipok rule) can serve as a strongly action�-guiding principle for utilitarian concerns. I also show how the notion of existential risk suggests a new way of thinking about the ideal of sustainability.

Download the PDF (working draft) www.existential-risk.org/concept.pdf

(2011) Nick Bostrom
Faculty of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School
University of Oxford
www.existential�-risk.org

In a field littered with unintended consequences and feedback loops, this paper shows how to achieve an imminently desirable property in utility functions: indifference. This allows both the ability to change the utility function safely in many circumstances, but also permits the use of novel defences against any agent - such as an AI - implementing such a utility function.

Download report to read more (PDF).  

At the FHI Winter Intelligence conference on machine intelligence 16/1 2011 an informal poll was conducted to elicit the views of the participants on various questions related to the emergence of machine intelligence. This report summarizes the results.

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Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the function of the human brain. It represents a formidable engineering and research problem, yet one which appears to have a well-defined goal and could, it would seem, be achieved by extrapolations of current technology.

Since the implications of successful WBE are potentially very large the Future of Humanity Institute hosted a workshop in Oxford on 26-27 May, 2007. Invited experts from areas such as computational neuroscience, brain-scanning technology, computing, and neurobiology presented their findings and discussed the possibilities, problems and milestones that would have to be reached before WBE becomes feasible.

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At the Global Catastrophic Risks Conference in Oxford (17-20 July, 2008) an informal survey was circulated among participants, asking them to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100.  This report summarizes the main results.

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On 21 July 2008, the Policy Foresight Programme, in conjunction with the Future of Humanity Institute, hosted a day-long workshop on �Policy Foresight and Global Catastrophic Risks� at the James Martin 21st Century School at the University of Oxford. FHI's second report details the discussions that took place, and the recommendations to government that were made. 

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The article explores important methodological problems which arise when assessing risks with very low probabilities and very high stakes, and concludes that the risks involved in the LHC are larger than the official estimates.

FHI's paper, "Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes", written by Toby Ord, Rafaela Hillerbrand and Anders Sandberg, is now available for download here.