Over the long run, technology has improved the human condition. Nevertheless, the economic progress from technological innovation has not arrived equitably or smoothly. While innovation often produces great wealth, it has also often been disruptive to labor, society, and world order. In light of ongoing advances in artificial intelligence (“AI”), we should prepare for the […]

Scientific and technological progress might change people’s capabilities or incentives in ways that would destabilize civilization. This paper introduces the concept of a vulnerable world: roughly, one in which there is some level of technological development at which civilization almost certainly gets devastated by default, i.e. unless it has exited the “semi-anarchic default condition”.

Reframing Superintelligence Abstract: Studies of superintelligent-level systems have typically posited AI functionality that plays the role of a mind in a rational utility-directed agent, and hence employ an abstraction initially developed as an idealized model of human decision makers. Today, developments in AI technology highlight intelligent systems that are quite unlike minds, and provide a […]

A team lead by researchers from FHI have released a large empirical study of the effects and perceived social burden of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 transmission. To our knowledge, it is the largest data-driven study of NPI effectiveness to date. What did we do? We collected chronological data on 9 NPIs in 41 countries […]

A ‘long read’ piece in The Guardian newspaper today examines Covid-19 in the context of earlier pandemics, and reflects on how to manage the existential risk posed by bio-technology today. It is an edited extract from Toby Ord’s new book The Precipice. Read the piece on The Guardian. Toby is also cited in a piece […]