In a recent technical report, Dr. Owen Cotton-Barratt discusses how we ought to allocate existential risk mitigation effort across time. The primary finding is that all else being equal we should prefer work earlier and prefer to work on risks that might come early. This is because we are uncertain about when we will have to face different risks, because we expect diminishing returns of extra work, and because we expect that more people will work on these risks in the future.  To read the full technical report, please see here.

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