Publications

Featured Publications

Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies

The most comprehensive work to date detailing the existential risks of artificial superintelligence.

“Nick Bostrom makes a persuasive case that the future impact of AI is perhaps the most important issue the human race has ever faced. Instead of passively drifting, we need to steer a course. Superintelligence charts the submerged rocks of the future with unprecedented detail. It marks the beginning of a new era.” — Stuart Russell, Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Berkley

“Those disposed to dismiss an ‘AI takeover’ as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well-argued book.” — Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society 

Published by Oxford University Press, 2014.


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Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority

Existential risks are those that threaten the entire future of humanity. Many theories of value imply that even relatively small reductions in net existential risk have enormous expected value. Despite their importance, issues surrounding human extinction risks and related hazards remain poorly understood. In this paper, I clarify the concept of existential risk and develop an improved classification scheme. I discuss the relation between existential risks and basic issues in axiology, and show how existential risk reduction (via the maxipok rule) can serve as a strongly action-guiding principle for utilitarian concerns. I also show how the notion of existential risk suggests a new way of thinking about the ideal of sustainability.

Published in Global Policy, 2013.


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Global Catastrophic Risks

In July 2008 the Future of Humanity Institute held an international conference on Global Catastrophic Risks in Oxford. An informal survey was circulated amongst participants, asking them to estimate the chance of disasters of different types occurring before 2100. A research report issued by FHI summarizes the main results.

A book – collection of essays, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic, with a foreword by Sir Martin Rees, is now available to buy from amazon.co.uk, amazon.com and Oxford University Press.

Click here to read (PDF) an introductory chapter.


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Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap

Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the function of the human brain. It represents a formidable engineering and research problem, yet one which appears to have a well-defined goal and could, it would seem, be achieved by extrapolations of current technology.

Since the implications of successful WBE are potentially very large the Future of Humanity Institute hosted a workshop in Oxford on 26-27 May, 2007. Invited experts from areas such as computational neuroscience, brain-scanning technology, computing, and neurobiology presented their findings and discussed the possibilities, problems and milestones that would have to be reached before WBE becomes feasible.


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Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probability and High Stakes

The article, written by Toby Ord, Rafaela Hillerbrand and Anders Sandberg, explores important methodological problems which arise when assessing risks with very low probabilities and very high stakes, and concludes that the risks involved in the LHC are larger than the official estimates.

Published in Journal of Risk Research, 2010.


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Eternity in Six Hours: Intergalactic Spreading of Intelligent Life and Sharpening the Fermi Paradox

The Fermi paradox is the discrepancy between the strong likelihood of alien intelligent life emerging (under a wide variety of assumptions), and the absence of any visible evidence for such emergence. In this paper, we extend the Fermi paradox to not only life in this galaxy, but to other galaxies as well. We do this by demonstrating that traveling between galaxies—indeed even launching a colonisation project for the entire reachable universe—is a relatively simple task for a star-spanning civilization, requiring modest amounts of energy and resources. We start by demonstrating that humanity itself could likely accomplish such a colonisation project in the foreseeable future, should we want to, and then demonstrate that there are millions of galaxies that could have reached us by now, using similar methods. This results in a considerable sharpening of the Fermi paradox.

Published in Acta Astronautica, 2013.

This book explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by observation selection effects. We will be discussing many interesting applications: philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes aside, we will use our results to address several juicy bits of contemporary science: cosmology (how many universes are there?), evolution theory (how improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?), the problem of time’s arrow (can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?), game theoretic problems with imperfect recall (how to model them?), traffic analysis (why is the “next lane” faster?) and a lot more.

ISBN: 978-0415883948 Publisher: Routledge

Available from: amazon.co.ukamazon.com , manuscript now available for free here.


Forthcoming


Frey, C.B., and Osborne, M. A., ‘The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?’

Sandberg, A, ‘The Future of Identity‘, report commissioned by the UK’s Government Office for Science


2014


Armstrong, S., OhÉigeartaigh, S., ‘Who knows anything about AI?’, Intelligence Unbound, forthcoming, 2014 (Book Chapter)

Armstrong, S., Sandberg, A., & O hEigeartaigh, S., ‘Interstellar liberty’, Extraterrestrial Liberty, forthcoming, 2014 (Book Chapter)

Bostrom, Nick. Superintelligence: Paths, dangers, strategies. Oxford University Press, 2014.

Bostrom. Nick, & Yudkowsky, Eliezer. ‘The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence‘, In The Cambridge Handbook of Artificial Intelligence, eds. William Ramsey and Keith Frankish, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014 (Book Chapter)

Muehlhauser, L., & Bostrom, N. ‘Why we need friendly AI’, Think, 13(36), 41-47, 2014

Dewey, D. ‘Reinforcement Learning and the Reward Engineering Principle’, forthcoming in proceedings of the AAAI 2014 Spring Symposia

Müller, V. (ed.). Risks of artificial general intelligence, Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, (26/3) Special Issue: Taylor & Francis, 2014

Müller, V. C. Editorial: Risks of general artificial intelligence. Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, 26(3 – Special issue ‘Risks of General Artificial Intelligence’, ed. V. Müller), 1-5.

Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion. In V. C. Müller (Ed.), Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence. Berlin: Springer.

Earp, B. D., Sandberg, A., & Savulescu, J. (2014), ‘Brave new love: The threat of high-tech “conversion” therapy and the bio-oppression of sexual minorities’, AJOB Neuroscience, 5(1), 4-12

Earp, B. D., Sandberg, A., Kahane, G., Savulescu, J., Earp, B. D., Sandberg, A., … & Savulescu, J. (2014), ‘When is diminishment a form of enhancement? Rethinking the enhancement debate in biomedical ethics’, Frontiers in Systems Neuroscience, 8, 12

OhÉigeartaigh, S., Armisén, D., Byrne, K., Wolfe KH. ‘SearchDOGS Bacteria: Automated identification of potentially missed genes in annotated bacterial genomes’, Forthcoming, 2014


2013


Armstrong, S. & Bostrom, N. & Shulman, C. (2013), ‘Racing to the precipice: a model of artificial intelligence development‘, Technical Report #2013-1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University: pp. 1-8.

Armstrong, S., & Sandberg, A. (2013), ‘Eternity in six hours: Intergalactic spreading of intelligent life and sharpening the Fermi paradox‘, Acta Astronautica, 89, 1-13

Armstrong, S. (2013), ‘General purpose intelligence: arguing the orthogonality thesis’, Analysis and Metaphysics, (12), 68-84

Armstrong, S. (2013), ‘Risks and Mitigation Strategies for Oracle AI’, In Philosophy and Theory of Artificial Intelligence (pp. 335-347)

Armstrong, S., Sotola, K., OhÉigeartaigh, S. (2013), ‘The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions – and what they mean for the future‘, Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, 00(00), 1-27

Bostrom, N. (2013), ‘Existential risk prevention as global priority‘, Global Policy, 4(1), 15-31

Bostrom, N. (2013), Anthropic bias: Observation selection effects in science and philosophy, Routledge

Bostrom, N., & Roache, R. (2013), ‘Ethical Issues in Human Enhancement’, Medical Ethics, 226.

Beckstead, N., & Ord, T. (2013), ‘Rationing and Rationality’, Inequalities in Health: Concepts, Measures, and Ethics, 232

Frey, C. B. (2013), Intellectual Property Rights and the Financing of Technological Innovation: Public Policy and the Efficiency of Capital Markets, Edward Elgar Publishing

Drexler, K. E. (2013), Radical abundance: How a revolution in nanotechnology will change civilization, PublicAffairs

Dresler, M., Sandberg, A., Ohla, K., Bublitz, C., Trenado, C., Mroczko-Wąsowicz, A., Kühn, S. & Repantis, D., (2013), ‘Non-pharmacological cognitive enhancement’, Neuropharmacology, 64, 529-543

Müller, V. C. (Ed.). Theory and philosophy of artificial intelligence (SAPERE,  Vol. 5). Berlin: Springer, 2013

Sandberg, A. (2013), ‘Feasibility of Whole Brain Emulation’, In Philosophy and Theory of Artificial Intelligence (pp. 251-264)

Earp, B. D., Wudarczyk, O. A., Sandberg, A., & Savulescu, J. (2013), ‘If I could just stop loving you: Anti-love biotechnology and the ethics of a chemical breakup’, The American Journal of Bioethics, 13(11), 3-17

Sandberg, A. (2013), ‘Enhancement policy and the value of information’, The American Journal of Bioethics, 13(7), 34-35

Maguire S., ÓhÉigeartaigh S., Byrne K., Schroeder, M., O’Gaora, P., Wolfe, K., and Butler, G. (2013), ‘Comparative genome analysis and gene finding in Candida species using CGOB’  Mol Biol Evol. Jun;30(6):1281-91


2012


Armstrong, S., Sandberg, A., and Bostrom, N., (2012), ‘Thinking inside the box: Controlling and using an oracle AI‘, Minds and Machines 22.4: 299-324

Armstrong, S. (2012): ‘Nash equilibrium of identical agents facing the
Unilateralist’s Curse‘, Technical Report #2012-3, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford
University: pp. 1-5

Bostrom, N. (2012), ‘The Superintelligent Will: Motivation and Instrumental Rationality in Advanced Artificial Agents‘, in Minds and Machines, Vol 22:2, pp. 71-85

Bostrom, N. (2012), ‘Infinite Ethics‘, in Analysis and Metaphysics, Vol 10, pp. 9-59

Dewey, D. (2012), ‘A Representation Theorem for Decisions about Causal Models‘, in Artificial General Intelligence, pp. 60-68

Liao, M., Sandberg, A. and Roache, R., (2012), ‘Human engineering and climate change‘, Ethics, Policy & Environment Vol: 15(2): 206-221

Gomila, A., & Müller, V. C. (2012). Challenges for artificial cognitive systems. Journal of Cognitive Science, 13(4), 453-469.

Müller, V. C. (Ed.). (2012). Theory and philosophy of AI (Minds and Machines,  Vol. 22/2- Special volume): Springer.

Müller, V. C. (2012). Autonomous cognitive systems in real-world environments: Less control, more flexibility and better interaction. Cognitive Computation, 4(3), 212-215.

Müller, V. C., & Ayesh, A. (Eds.). (2012). Revisiting Turing and his test: Comprehensiveness, qualia, and the real world (AISB/IACAP Symposium)). Hove: AISB.

Sandberg, A. & Armstrong, S. (2012), ‘Indefinite Survival through Backup Copies‘,
Technical Report #2012-1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University: pp. 1-5

Shulman, C., & Bostrom, N, (2012), ‘How hard is artificial intelligence? Evolutionary arguments and selection effects‘, Journal of Consciousness Studies, 19(7-8), 7-8


2011


Bostrom, N., (2011), ‘Information hazards: a typology of potential harms from knowledge‘, Review of Contemporary Philosophy, Vol: 10: 44-79

Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2011), ‘Machine Intelligence Survey‘, Technical Report #2011-1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University: pp. 1-12

Sandberg, A., Sinnott-Armstrong, W. and Savulescu, J. (2011), ‘Cognitive Enhancement in Courts’, in  J. Illes and B. J. Sahakian (Eds) Oxford Handbook of Neuroethics, (Oxford: Oxford University Press)

Sandberg, A. (2011), ‘Cognition Enhancement:  Upgrading the Brain’, in  J. Savulescu, R. ter Meulen and G. Kahane (Eds) Enhancing Human Capacities, (Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell) pp. 71-91

Sandberg, A. and Savulescu, J. (2011), ‘The Social and Economic Impacts of Cognitive Enhancement’, in  J. Savulescu, R. Ter Meulen and G. Kahane (Eds) Enhancing Human Capacities, (Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell) pp.92-113

Savulescu, J., Sandberg, A. and Kahane, G. (2011), ‘Enhancement and Well-being’, in  J. Savulescu, R. ter Meulen and G. Kahane (Eds.) Enhancing Human Capacities,Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell pp. 3-18

Savulescu, J., Sandberg, A. and Kahane, G. (2011), ‘Reasons to Feel, Reasons to Take Pills’, in  J. Savulescu, R. ter Meulen and G. Kahane (Eds.) Enhancing Human Capacities,Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell pp. 166-178


2010


Armstrong, S. (2010), ‘Utility Indifference‘, Technical Report #2010-1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University: pp. 1-5

Bostrom, N. and M. Kulczycki (2010), ‘A Patch for the Simulation Argument‘, Analysis, Vol: 71(1) pp. 54-61

Bostrom, N. (2010), ‘The Future of Humanity‘, in J.-K. B. Olsen, S. A. Pedersen and V. F. Hendricks (Eds.) Companion to Philosophy of Technology,Wiley-Blackwell pp. 551-558

Bostrom, N., Cirkovic , M. M. and Sandberg, A. (2010), ‘Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks‘, Risk Analysis, Vol: 30(10) pp. 1495-1506

Sandberg, A., Holmes, E. A. and Iyadurai, L. (2010), ‘Erasing trauma memories: is this what the science suggests or even what we want to do? (Letter in The British Journal of Psychiatry)’, Vol: 197 pp. 414-b-415-b

Ord, T., Hillerbrand, R. and Sandberg, A. (2010), ‘Probing the improbable: methodological challenges for risks with low probabilities and high stakes‘, Journal of Risk Research, Vol: 13(2) pp. 191-205


2009


Bostrom, N., (2009), ‘Enhancement Ethics: The State of the Debate‘, In J. Savulescu and N. Bostrom (Eds.), Human Enhancement, (Oxford:  Oxford University Press) pp. 1-22

Bostrom, N., (2009), ‘How to Enhance Human Beings’, In M. Brockman (Ed.), What’s Next:  Dispatches on the Future of Science:  Original Essays from a New Generation of Scientists,  (Vintage) pp. 25-39

Bostrom, N. and Sandberg, A., (2009), ‘Cognitive Enhancement: Methods, Ethics, Regulatory Challenges‘, Science and Engineering Ethics,  Vol: 15 (3),  pp. 311-341

Bostrom, N., (2009), ‘Pascal’s Mugging’, Analysis, Vol: 69 (3), pp. 443-445

Bostrom, N., (2009), ‘The Simulation Argument: Some Explanations’, Analysis, Vol: 69 (3), pp.458-461.

Bostrom, N., (2009), ‘The Future of Humanity‘, In J. K. B. Olsen, E. Selinger and S. Riis Aldershot (Eds.), New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, pp. 186-216 (Palgrave Macmillan)

Bostrom, N., (2009), ‘Brain-Boosters’, In P. Healey and S. Rayner (Eds.), Unnatural Selection:  The Challenges of Engineering Tomorrow’s People,  pp. 129-141, (London: Sterling)

Hanson, R. (2009), ‘Enhancing our truth orientation‘, in J. Savulescu and N. Bostrom Eds.) Human Enhancement, Oxford:  Oxford University Press

Hanson, R. and Oprea, R. (2009), ‘A Manipulator can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy‘, Economica, Vol: 76(302) pp. 304-314

Hanson, R. (2009), ‘On Market Maker Functions‘, Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol: 3(1) pp. 61-63

Hanson, R., Ledyard, J. and Ishikida, T., (2009), ‘An Experimental Test of Combinatorial Information Markets‘, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol: 69 pp. 182-189


2008


Bostrom, N. (2008), ‘Parenthetical Word‘ in Alexei Turchin’s Structure of the Global Catastrophe: Risks of Human Extinction in the XXI Century,  A Series: Dialogues about the Future, Vol 2 (series editors I. V. Sledzevsky and V. Prajd), (online book) pp. 22

Bostrom, N. (2008), ‘Foreword’, in M. S. Vassiliadou’s Axiological Anthropology and the Promotion of Mental Health,  (ed. Richard Baron), London : Educational Trust for Health Improvement Through Cognitive Strategies

Bostrom, N. (2008), ‘The Doomsday Argument‘, Think: Philosophy for Everyone Vol: 6 (Spring Issue 17-18 ) pp. 23-27

Bostrom, N. and Sandberg, A., (2008), ‘Cognitive Enhancement: Methods, Ethics, Regulatory Challenges’, Science and Engineering Ethics, Vol: 15 (3),  pp. 311-341

Bostrom, N., (2008), ‘Dignity and Enhancement ‘,  In Human Dignity and Bioethics: Essays Commissioned by the President’s Council on Bioethics,  (pp. 173-207). President’s Council on Bioethics:  Washington, D.C.: 2008

Bostrom, N., (2008), ‘Drugs Can Be Used to Treat More Than Disease’, Nature, Vol: 451 (7178), pp. 520.

Bostrom, N., (2008), ‘Where Are They? Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing’, MIT Technology Review, (May/June).

Bostrom, N., (2008),‘Letter from Utopia’, Studies in Ethics, Law, and Technology, Vol: 2 (1), pp. 1-7.

Bostrom, N., (2008), ‘Moralist, Meet Scientist; Scientist, Meet Moralist‘, Nature, Vol: 453, pp. 593-594.

Bostrom, N., (2008), ‘Letter from Utopia‘, In S. Marsen (Ed.), Becoming More Than Human:  Technology and the Post-Human Condition.

Bostrom, N., (2008), ‘Everything‘, In J. Brockman (Ed.), What Have You Changed Your Mind About?, (New York: Harper Collins)

Bostrom, N., (2008), ‘How to Enhance Human Beings’, In M. Brockman (Ed.), The New Stars of Science, (ebook edition: Random House)

Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008): ‘Global Catastrophic Risks Survey‘, Technical Report #2008-1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University: pp. 1-5

Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008): ‘Whole Brain Emulation: a Roadmap‘, Technical Report #2008-3, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University: pp. 1-130

Sandberg, A. and Liao, M., (2008), ‘The Normativity of Memory Modification’, Neuroethics, Vol: 1 (2), pp. 85-99,

Sandberg, A. and Ravelingien, A., (2008), ‘Sleep Better Than Medicine? Ethical and Philosophical Issues Related To “Wake Enhancement“‘, Journal of Medical Ethics, Vol: 34 (9), pp. E9,

Sandberg, A. and Savulescu, J., (2008), ‘Neuroenhancement of Love and Marriage: The Chemicals between Us ‘, Neuroethics, Vol: 1 (1), pp. 31-44,

Hanson, R. (2008), ‘The Rapacious Hardscrapple Frontier‘, in D. Broderick (Ed.) Year Million:  Science at the Far Edge of Knowledge, Atlas Books: 168-192

Hanson, R. (2008), ‘Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction’, in M. Rees, N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovic (Eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford:  Oxford University Press: 363-377

Hanson, R. (2008), ‘Insider Trading and Prediction Markets’,Journal of Law, Economics, and Policy, Vol: 4(2) pp. 449-463

Hanson, R., (2008), ‘Economics of Brain Emulation’. In the proceedings of Unnatural Selection – The Challenges of Engineering Tomorrow’s People, London (December)

Hanson, R., Arrow, K. J., Forsythe, R., Gorham, M., Hahn, R., Ledyard, J. O., Levmore, S., Litan, R., Milgrom, P., Nelson, F. D., Neumann, G. R., Ottaviani, M., Schelling, T. C., Shiller, R. J., Smith, V. L., Snowberg, E., Sunstein, C. R., Tetlock, P. C., Tetlock, P. E., Varian, H. R., Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E., (2008), ‘The Promise of Prediction Markets’, Science,  Vol: 5878 (877-8878),

Hanson, R., (2008), ‘Making Sense of Medical Paternalism’, Medical Hypotheses, Vol: 70 (5), pp. 910-913

Hanson, R., (2008), ‘Showing That You Care: The Evolution of Health Altruism’, Medical Hypotheses, Vol: 70 (4), pp. 724-742

Tickell, C. et al. (2008): ‘Record of the Workshop on Policy Foresight and Global
Catastrophic Risks‘, Technical Report #2008-2, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford
University: pp. 1-19


2007


Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘Ethical and Political Challenges to the Prospect of Life Extension’. In the proceedings of Invited article for World Demographics Association Proceedings 2006

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘Transhumanist Valuing’, Hastings Center Report, Vol: September/October

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘Ethical Principles in the Creation of Artificial Minds’, Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, Vol: 6, pp. 183-184

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘Sleeping Beauty and Self-Location: A Hybrid Model’, Synthese, Vol: 157 (1), pp. 59-78,

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘Technological Revolutions:  Ethics and Policy in the Dark‘, In J. Savulescu (Ed.), Ethics of East and West:  How They Contribute to the Quest for Wisdom, (Oxford: Oxford Uehiro Center for Practical Ethics)

Bostrom, N. and Roache, R., (2007), ‘Ethical Issues in Human Enhancement‘, In J. Ryberg (Ed.), New Waves in Applied Ethics, (Palgrave Macmillan)

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘Technological Revolutions and the Problem of Prediction’, In P. Lin, J. Moor, J. Weckert and F. Allhoff (Eds.), Nanoethics:  The Ethical and Social Implications of Nanotechnology, (Wiley Interscience) pp.101-118

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘Why I Want to Be a Posthuman When I Grow Up‘, In B. Gordijn and R. Chadwick (Eds.), Medical Enhancement and Posthumanity, (Springer)

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘Technological Revolutions:  Ethics and Policy in the Dark‘, In N. M. D. S. Cameron and M. E. Mitchell (Eds.), Nanoscale:  Issues and Perspectives for the Nano Century, (John Wiley)

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘The Future of Humanity‘, In J. K. B. Olsen, S. A. Pedersen and V. F. Hendricks (Eds.), Companion to Philosophy of Technology, (Blackwell)

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘Smart Policy:  Cognitive Enhancement and the Public Interest‘, In L. Zonneveld, H. Dijstelbloem and D. Ringoir (Eds.), Reshaping the Human Condition:  Exploring Human Enhancement,  pp. 29-37  (The Hague: Rathenau Institute, British Embassy, Science and Innovation Network and UK Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology)

Bostrom, N. and Sandberg, A., (2007), ‘The Wisdom of Nature:  An Evolutionary Heuristic for Human Enhancement‘, In N. Bostrom and J. Savulescu (Eds.), Human Enhancement, (Oxford: Oxford University Press)

Bostrom, N., (2007), ‘In Defense of Posthuman Dignity‘, In R. Chadwick, H. Kuhse, W. Landman, U. Schüklenk and P. Singer (Eds.), The Bioethics Reader:  Editors’ Choice,  pp. 58-70 (Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing)

Bostrom, N. and Roache, R., (2007), ‘Three Big Problems’, In C. Tandy (Ed.), Death and Anti Death,  pp. 147-165  (Palo Alto, CA: Ria University Press) [Video presentation]

Sandberg, A., Chakraborty, S. and Greenfield, S., (2007), ‘Differential Dynamics of Transient Neuronal Assemblies in Visual Compared to Auditory Cortex’, Experimental Brain Research, Vol: 182 (4), pp. 491-498,

Sandberg, A., (2007), ‘Cognitive Enhancement: Can We Afford to Ban It?’ In the proceedings of Enhancement and Genetics Conference, University of Jena, Germany (22-24 June 2007)

Hanson, R., (2007), ‘Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modula Combinatorial Information Aggregation’, Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol: 1 pp. 3-15,

Hanson, R., (2007), ‘The Policy Analysis Market: A Thwarted Experiment in the Use of Prediction Markets for Public Policy’, Innovations, Vol: 2 (3), pp. 73-88,

Hanson, R. and Hughes, J., (2007), ‘The Hanson-Hughes Debate On “The Crack of a Future Dawn”‘, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol: 16 (1), pp. 99-126,


2006


Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘Desire, Time, and Ethical Weight‘, Analysis and Metaphysics, Vol: 4 (2), pp. 59-83

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘Quanitity of Experience: Brain-Duplication and Degrees of Consciousness‘, Minds and Machines, Vol: 16 (2), pp. 185-200

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘What Is a Singleton‘, Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, Vol: 5 (2), pp. 48-54

Bostrom, N. and Ord, T., (2006), ‘The Reversal Test:  Eliminating Status Quo Bias in Bioethics‘, Ethics,  Vol: 116 (4),  pp. 656-680

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence‘, Review of Contemporary Philosophy, Vol: 5  (August), pp. 66-73

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘Nanoethics and Technological Revolutions: A Précis‘, Nanotechnology Perceptions: A Review of Ultraprecision Engineering and Nanotechnology, Vol: 2 (1b, May Issues)

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘Dinosaurs, Dodos, Humans?‘ Global Agenda (World Economic Forum), Vol: January 2006 pp. 230-231

Bostrom, N. and Sandberg, A., (2006), ‘Converging Cognitive Enhancements‘, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol: 1093 (Special Issue: Progress in Convergence: Technologies for Human Wellbeing, Bainbridge, W., and Roco, M.C. (eds), pp. 201

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘A Short History of Transhumanist Thought‘, Analysis and Metaphysics, Vol: 5 No 1-2 pp. 63-95

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘Observation Selection Theory and Cosmological Fine-Tuning‘, In B. Carr (Ed.), Universe or Multiverse, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘The Singularity’, In P. Miller and J. Wilsdon (Eds.), Better Humans?  The Ethics and Politics of Human Enhancement, DEMOS.

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘Growing Up:  Human Nature and Enhancement Technologies’, In E. Mitchell (Ed.), Tomorrow’s People:  The Challenge to Human Nature,

Bostrom, N., (2006), ‘Recent Developments in the Ethics, Science, and Politics of Life-Extension‘, In C. Tandy (Ed.), Death and Anti-Death, Volume 3:  Fifty Years after Einstein, One Hundred Fifty Years after Kierkegaard, Palo Alto, California: Ria University Press

Bostrom, N. and Sandberg, A., (2006), ‘Cognitive Enhancement:  Methods, Ethics, Regulatory Challenges‘. In the proceedings of Forbidding Science?  Balancing Freedom, Security, Innovation and Precaution Conference, Arizona State University’s College, Center for the Study of Law, Science & Technology (12 and 13 January)

Hanson, R., (2006), ‘Accept Interdependence’. In the proceedings of Ci’num – The Digital Civilizations Forum 2006

Hanson, R. (2006), ‘Foul Play in Information Markets’, in B. Hahn and P. C. Tetlock Eds.) Information Markets:  A new way of making decisions in the public and private sectors, AEI Spring Press: 126-141

Hanson, R. (2006), ‘Fear of Death and Muddled Thinking – It is so Much Worse Than You Think’, in C. Tandy (Ed.) Death and Anti-Death Volume 3:  Fifty Years After Einstein, One Hundred Fifty Years After Kierkegaard, (Ria University Press)

Hanson, R., (2006), ‘Five Nanotech Social Scenarios’. In the proceedings of Nanotechnology: Societal Implications II, Individual Perspectives (November)

Hanson, R. (2006), ‘Decision Markets for Policy Advice’, in E. Patashnik and A. Gerber Eds.) Promoting the General Welfare: American Democracy and the Political Economy of Government Performance, Brookings Institution Press: 151-173

Hanson, R., (2006), ‘Designing Real Terrorism Futures’, Public Choice, Vol: 128 (1-2), pp. 257-274,

Hanson, R., Oprea, R. and Porter, D., (2006), ‘Information Aggregation Andmanipulation in an Experimental Market’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol: 60 (4), pp. 449-459

Hanson, R., (2006), ‘Uncommon Priors Require Origin Disputes’, Theory and Decision, Vol: 61 (4), pp. 318-328,

Hanson, R., (2006), ‘Drift-Diffusion in Mangled Worlds Quantum Mechanics’, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol: 462 (2069), pp. 1619-1627,


2005


Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘Re: The Benevolent Dragon’, Journal of Medical Ethics, Vol: 31 (5), pp. 273#332 e-letter section

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘Scientist Find Death Can Damage Your Health’, Journal of Medical Ethics, Vol: 31 (5), pp. 273#308 e-letter section

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘The Future of Humankind: Heaven, Hell, with Stops Along the Way. Review Of “Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies – and What It Means to Be Human” By Joel Garreau’, Scientific American, (July)

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘A Proactive Response to the Tsunami Disaster’, Better Humans, (19 January),

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘Why Make a Matrix? And Why You Might Be in One’, In W. Irwin (Ed.), More Matrix and Philosophy, New York: Open Court.

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘Understanding Quine’s Thesis of Indeterminacy’, Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, Vol: 4 (1), pp. 60-96

Bostrom, N. and Tegmark, M., (2005), ‘How Unlikely Is a Doomsday Catastrophe?‘ Nature, Vol: 438 (7069), pp. 754 and supplementary materials,

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘The Simulation Argument: Reply to Brian Weatherson‘, Philosophical Quarterly, Vol: 55 (218), pp. 90-97,

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘A History of Transhumanist Thought‘, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol: 14 (1), pp. 1-25,

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘Recent Arguments About Life-Extension‘, Aging Horizons, Vol: 3 (Autumn/Winter), pp. 28-34

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘In Defence of Posthuman Dignity‘, Bioethics, Vol: 19 (3), pp. 202-214,

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘Transhumanist Values‘, Review of Contemporary Philosophy, Vol: 4 (1-2), pp. 87-101,

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant‘, Journal of Medical Ethics, Vol: 31 (5), pp. 273-277,

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘A Short History of Transhumanist Thought’, In R. Ettinger (Ed.), The Prospect of Immortality, with Comments by Others, in C. Tandy (Ed) in the Cultural Classics Series, Palo Alto, California: Ria University Press.

Bostrom, N., (2005), ‘Why Make a Matrix?  And Why You Might Be in One’, In W. Irwin (Ed.), More Matrix and Philosophy, New York:  Open Court.