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Selected Publications
- Future Proof – The opportunity to transform the UK’s resilience to extreme risks (Toby Ord, Angus Mercer, Sophie Dannreuther)
- Biosecurity risks associated with vaccine platform technologies (Jonas Sandbrink, Gregory Koblentz)
- Promoting versatile vaccine development for emerging pandemics (Joshua Monrad, Jonas Sandbrink, Neil Cherian)
- Safety and security concerns regarding transmissible vaccines (Jonas Sandbrink, Matthew Watson, Andrew Hebbeler, Kevin Esvelt)
- RNA Vaccines: A Suitable Platform for Tackling Emerging Pandemics? (Jonas Sandbrink, Robin Shattock)
- Artificial Canaries: Early Warning Signs for Anticipatory and Democratic Governance of AI (Cremer and Whittlestone) (also best paper at EPAI 2020)
- QNRs: Toward Language for Intelligent Machines (Eric Drexler)
- What is the Upper Limit of Value? (Anders Sandberg, David Manheim)
- Institutionalizing ethics in AI through broader impact requirements (Carina Prunkl, Carolyn Ashurst, Markus Anderljung, Helena Webb, Jan Leike & Allan Dafoe)
- Fully General Online Imitation Learning (Michael K Cohen, Marcus Hutter, Neel Nanda)
- Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective (Tom Everitt, Ryan Carey, Eric Langlois, Pedro A Ortega, Shane Legg)
- Equilibrium Refinements for Multi-Agent Influence Diagrams: Theory and Practice (Lewis Hammond, James Fox, Tom Everitt, Alessandro Abate, Michael Wooldridge)
- Reputations for Resolve and Higher-Order Beliefs in Crisis Bargaining (Allan Dafoe, Remco Zwetsloot, Matthew Cebul)
- Rapid Proliferation of Pandemic Research: Implications for Dual-Use Risks (Sriharshita Musunuri, Jonas B. Sandbrink, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, Megan J. Palmer, Gregory D. Koblentz)
- Protocols and risks: when less is more (Jaspreet Pannu, Jonas B. Sandbrink, Matthew Watson, Megan J. Palmer & David A. Relman)
- The Incentives that Shape Behaviour. (Ryan Carey, Eric Langlois, Tom Everitt, and Shane Legg, SafeAI@AAAI)
- Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter (Owen Cotton‐Barratt, Max Daniel & Anders Sandberg in Global Policy; DOI 10.1111/1758-5899.12786)
- The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good (Cullen O’Keefe, Peter Cihon, Ben Garfinkel, Carrick Flynn, Jade Leung, Allan Dafoe)
- How does the offense-defense balance scale?
- Contact tracing apps can help stop coronavirus. But they can hurt privacy. (Toby Shevlane, Ben Garfinkel, Allan Dafoe in Washington Post)
- Social and Governance Implications of Improved Data Efficiency. (Tucker, A. D., Anderljung, M. & Dafoe, A.) arXiv preprint arXiv:2001.05068
- The Logic of Strategic Assets: From Oil to Artificial Intelligence (Ding, J. & Dafoe, A.). arXiv preprint arXiv:2001.03246
- Open Problems in Cooperative AI (Allan Dafoe, Edward Hughes, Yoram Bachrach, Tantum Collins, Kevin R. McKee, Joel Z. Leibo, Kate Larson, Thore Graepel)
- Beyond Near- and Long-Term: Towards a Clearer Account of Research Priorities in AI Ethics and Society (Carina Prunkl & Jess Whittlestone)
- A Guide to Writing the NeurIPS Impact Statement (Carolyn Ashurst, Markus Anderljung, Carina Prunkl, Jan Leike, Yarin Gal, Toby Shevlane, Allan Dafoe)
- Toward Trustworthy AI Development: Mechanisms for Supporting Verifiable Claims (arXiv:2004.07213)
- Asymptotically unambitious artificial general intelligence. In AAAI, M. K. Cohen, B. Vellambi, and M. Hutter.
- A strongly asymptotically optimal agent in general environments. IJCAI, MK Cohen, E Catt, M Hutter.
- Who Should We Fear More: Biohackers, Disgruntled Postdocs, or Bad Governments? A Simple Risk Chain Model of Biorisk
- Assessing the Risks Posed by the Convergence of Artificial Intelligence and Biotechnology
- The 2019 Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and its implications for New Zealand and Pacific regional health security
- Bioengineering horizon scan 2020
- A solution scan of societal options to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission and spread.
- JCNSS – Written evidence submitted by Gregory Lewis
- Working paper: Proposal for a new UK National Institute for Biological Security (Cassidy Nelson and Gregory Lewis)
- Pandemics are not the only thing keeping biosecurity experts up at night (Toby Ord and Gregory Lewis | The Times)
- Validation analysis of Global Health Security Index (GHSI) scores 2019 (Boyd, Wilson and Nelson)
- Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19 (Jan M. Brauner, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, et al.)
- Death and Anti-Death (Bostrom, N., Ettinger, R. C. W., & Tandy, C. (2004. Volume 2: Two Hundred Years After Kant, Fifty Years After Turing.)
- Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization (Seth D. Baum, Stuart Armstrong, Robin Hanson, Matthijs M. Maas, Anders Sandberg, et al., 2019)
- Generalizing from a few environments in safety-critical reinforcement learning. Zachary Kenton, Angelos Filos, Yarin Gal, Owain Evans. (SafeML ICLR 2019 Workshop)
- How useful is quantilization for mitigating specification-gaming? Ryan Carey. (SafeML ICLR 2019 Workshop)
- Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General Intelligence. Technical Report #2019-1. K. Eric Drexler
- An upper bound for the background rate of human extinction (Andrew E. Snyder-Beattie, Toby Ord & Michael B. Bonsall; Scientific Reports, 2019)
- Engineered pathogens: the opportunities, risks and challenges (Cassidy Nelson, Synthetic Biology, June 2019)
- Bridging Health and Security Sectors to Address High-Consequence Biological Risks (Cassidy Nelson, co-author with Michelle Nalabandian of NTI)
- UK Government’s approach to emerging infectious diseases and bioweapons (Dr Cassidy Nelson, Prof. Mike Bonsall, et al.)
- Black Hole Entropy is Thermodynamic Entropy (Carina E. A. Prunkl and Christopher G. Timpson)
- Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems (Evan Hubinger, Chris van Merwijk et al.; arXiv:1906.01820)
- (When) Is Truth-telling favored in AI Debate? (Vojtech Kovarik, Ryan Carey; SafeAI@AAAI)
- Sensory Optimization: Neural Networks as a Model for Understanding and Creating Art (Owain Evans; arXiv:1911.07068 )
- The Vulnerable World Hypothesis
- US Public Opinion on the Governance of Artificial Intelligence (Zhang, B. & Dafoe, A.). In Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society (pp. 187-193)
- The Offense-Defense Balance of Scientific Knowledge: Does Publishing AI Research Reduce Misuse? (Shevlane, T. & Dafoe, A.) In Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society (pp. 173-179)
- Global Politics and the Governance of Artificial Intelligence (Dafoe, A.). Journal of International Affairs, 72(1), 121-126.
- Artificial intelligence: American attitudes and trends (Zhang, B. & Dafoe, A.). Available at SSRN 3312874.
- Space races: settling the universe fast. (Sandberg, A. 2018. Technical Report #2018-01. Future of Humanity Institute. University of Oxford)
- The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation (Brundage, M., Avin, S. & Clark, J. et al., 2018)
- Deciphering China’s AI Dream (Jeffrey Ding, 2018, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
- Active Reinforcement Learning with Monte-Carlo Tree Search (Evans O., Schulze S., arXiv:1803.04926v3, 2018)
- Predicting Human Deliberative Judgments with Machine Learning. (Evans O, Stuhlmüller A, Cundy C, Carey R, Kenton Z, McGrath T & Schreiber A, 2018)
- Occam’s razor is insufficient to infer the preferences of irrational agents (Armstrong S, Mindermann S, 2018)
- Information Hazards in Biotechnology (Gregory Lewis, Piers Millett, Anders Sandberg, Andrew Snyder-Beattie and Gigi Gronvall; first published online 2018; Risk Analysis, Vol. 39, No. 5, 2019)
- Incorrigibility in the CIRL Framework (Ryan Carey; Proceedings of AI, Ethics and Society)
- Accounting for the neglected dimensions of AI progress. (Martínez-Plumed, F., Avin, S., Brundage, M., Dafoe, A., hÉigeartaigh, S. Ó. & Hernández-Orallo, J.) arXiv preprint arXiv:1806.00610
- Dissolving the Fermi Paradox (Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, Toby Ord; 2018) arXiv:1806.02404
- Why Maximize Expected Choice‐Worthiness? (William MacAskill & Toby Ord; 2018)
- Symmetric Decomposition of Asymmetric Games (Karl Tuyls, Julien Pérolat, Marc Lanctot, Georg Ostrovski, Rahul Savani, Joel Z Leibo, Toby Ord, Thore Graepel & Shane Legg; 2018)
- Agent-Agnostic Human-in-the-Loop Reinforcement Learning. (Evans, O., Abel, D., Stuhlmüller A., Salvatier J. 2017. arXiv preprint: arXiv:1701.04079)
- Generalised Discount Functions applied to a Monte-Carlo AIμ Implementation. (Lamont, S., Aslanides, J., Leike, J., Hutter, M. (2017). arXiv preprint arXiv:103.01358v1)
- Existential Risks: Diplomacy and Governance. (Farquhar, S., Halstead, J., Cotton-Barratt, O., Schubert, S., Belfield, H., Snyder-Beattie, A. (2017).)
- Universal Reinforcement Learning Algorithms: Survey and Experiments. (Aslanides, J., Leike, J., Hutter, M. (2017). arXiv:1705.10557v1)
- That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi’s paradox. (Sandberg, A., Armstrong, S., Ćirković, M. (2017). arXiv:1705.03394v1)
- When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts. (Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B., Evans, O. (2017). arXiv:1705.08807v2)
- Trial without Error: Towards Safe Reinforcement Learning via Human Intervention. (Saunders, W., Sastry, G., Stuhlmüller, A., Evans, O. (2017). arXiv:1707.05173v1)
- Human Agency and Global Catastrophic Biorisks. (Millett, P., Snyder-Beattie, A. 2017. Health Security Volume 15, Number 4. DOI: 10.1089/hs.2017.0044)
- Pricing Externalities to Balance Public Risks and Benefits of Research. (Farquhar, S., Cotton-Barratt, O., Snyder-Beattie, A. 2017. Health Security. DOI: 10.1089/hs.2016.0118)
- Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity. (Millett, P., Snyder-Beattie, A. 2017. Health Security. DOI: 10.1089/hs.2017.0028)
- A Brief Survey of Deep Reinforcement Learning. (Arulkumaran, K., Deisenroth,M., Brundage, M., Bharath, A. 2017. arXiv:1708.05866)
- Anthropic decision theory for self-locating beliefs. (Armstrong, S. 2017. Technical Report #2017-1. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
- Strategic Implications of Openness in AI Development (Bostrom, N. 2017. Global Policy. 10.1111/1758-5899.12403)
- Modeling the social dynamics of moral enhancement: social strategies sold over-the-counter and the stability of society (Joao Fabiano and Anders Sandberg)
- Moral Uncertainty about Population Axiology (Hilary Greaves & Toby Ord; 2017)
- Learning the preferences of ignorant, inconsistent agents. (Evans, O., Stuhlmüller, A., & Goodman, N. 2016. Proceedings of the Thirtieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)
- The unilateralist’s curse: The case for a principle of conformity. (Bostrom, N., Douglas, T. & Sandberg, A. 2016. Social Epistemology, 30(4), 350-371)
- Racing to the precipice: a model of artificial intelligence development. (Armstrong, S., Bostrom, N., & Shulman, C. 2016. AI & Society, 1-6)
- Müller, V. & Bostrom, N. (2016). Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion. In Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence (pp. 553-571). Berlin: Springer.
- Beyond risk-benefit analysis: pricing externalities for dual use research of concern. (Cotton-Barratt, O., Farquhar, S. & Snyder-Beattie, A. 2016.)
- Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives compared to predictable ones. (Lipsitch, M., Evans, N, & Cotton-Barratt, O. (2016). Risk Analysis.)
- Strategic Implications of Openness in AI Development (Bostrom, N. 2016. (Technical Report #2016-1). Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
- Exploration potential. (Leike, J. 2016. arXiv preprint: arXiv:1609.04994)
- Safely interruptible agents. (Orseau, L. & Armstrong, S. (2016). Proceedings of the Thirty-Second Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Conference.)
- Thompson sampling is asymptotically optimal in general environments. (Leike, J., Lattimore, T., Orseau, L. & Hutter, M. (2016). Proceedings of the Thirty-Second Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Conference)
- A formal solution to the grain of truth problem. Proceedings of the Thirty-Second Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Conference. (Leike, J., Taylor, J., Fallenstein, B. (2016).)
- Policy Desiderata in the Development of Machine Superintelligence. (Bostrom, N., Dafoe, A., Flynn, C. (2016). Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
- 2016 | Energetics of the Brain and AI. (Sandberg A. 2016. Sapience Project)
- Cheating Death in Damascus. (Levinstein, B. A., Soares, N. 2016)
- A Pragmatist’s Guide to Epistemic Utility. (Levinstein, B. A. 2016)
- Imprecise Epistemic Values and Imprecise Credences. (Levinstein, B. A. 2016.)
- A General, Synthetic Model for Predicting Biodiversity Gradients from Environmental Geometry (Gross, K., Snyder-Beattie, A. 2016. The American Naturalist 188, no. 4: E85-E97.)
- Long-term strategies for ending existential risk from fast takeoff. (Dewey, D. 2016. In Taylor & Francis special volume ‘Risks of AI’.)
- Armstrong, S. (2015). Off-policy Monte Carlo agents with variable behaviour policies.
- Moral Trade. (Ord, T. 2015. Ethics, 126, 118-138)
- Corrigibility. (Soares, N., Fallenstein, B., Armstrong, S., & Yudkowsky, E. 2015. In Workshops at the Twenty-Ninth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)
- Learning the preferences of bounded agents. (Evans, O., Stuhlmüller A., Goodman N. 2015. Proceedings from NIPS 2015 Workshop on Bounded Optimality)
- Motivated Value Selection for Artificial Agents. (Armstrong, S. 2015. In Workshops at the Twenty-Ninth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)
- How we’re predicting AI or failing to. (Armstrong, S., & Sotala, K. 2015. In Beyond Artificial Intelligence (pp. 11-29). Springer International Publishing)
- How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe? (Beckstead, N. 2015. Futures, 72, 36-44)
- Industrial Renewal in the 21st Century: Evidence from US Cities. (Berger, T., & Frey, C. B. 2015. Regional Studies, 1-10)
- Gross, K., & Snyder-Beattie, A. (2015). Core mathematics to support new theory for distributions of biological diversity along environmental gradients.
- Permissive Rationality and Sensitivity. (Levinstein, B. A. 2015. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research)
- With All Due Respect: The Macro-Epistemology of Disagreement. (Levinstein, B. A. 2015. Philosopher’s Imprint, 17(13))
- La voiture autonome et ses implications morales. (Sandberg, A., Bradshaw-Martin, H., & Gérardin-Laverge, M. 2015. Multitudes, (1), 62-68.)
- Bubbles under the wallpaper: healthcare rationing and discrimination. (Ord, T., Beckstead, N. (2015). In Bioethics: an anthology 3rd edition. Oxford: Blackwell.)
- 2015 | Taking superintelligence seriously. (Brundage, M. (2015). Futures, 72, 32-35.)
- 2015 | MDL Intelligence Distillation: Exploring strategies for safe access to superintelligent problem-solving capabilities. (Drexler, K.E. 2015. Technical Report #2015-3. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
- A new counterexample to prioritarianism. (Ord, T. (2015). Utilitas, 27, 298–302)
- Bayesian Computational Models for Inferring Preferences. PhD Thesis. (Evans, O. (2015). Available on request.)
- Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions (Cotton-Barratt, O. & Ord, T. 2015. Technical Report #2015-1. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
- Systemic Risk of Modelling in Insurance: Did your model tell you all models are wrong? (Snyder-Beattie, A., et al. 2015. Systemic Risk of Modelling Working Party, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford)
- Allocating risk mitigation across time. (Cotton-Barratt, O. 2015. Technical Report #2015-2. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford & Global Priorities Project.)
- Superintelligence: Paths, dangers, strategies. (Bostrom, N. 2014. Oxford University Press.)
- Unprecedented technological risks. (Beckstead, N., Bostrom, N., Bowerman, N., Cotton-Barratt, O., MacAskill, W., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S., & Ord, T. 2014. Future of Humanity Institute)
- Smarter than us: The rise of machine intelligence. (Armstrong, S. 2014. MIRI)
- Who Knows Anything about Anything about AI? (Armstrong, S., & ÓhÉigeartaigh, S. 2014. In Intelligence unbound: The future of uploaded and machine minds (pp. 46-60). Wiley)
- The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions and what they mean for the future. (Armstrong, S., Sotala, K., & Ó hÉigeartaigh, S. S. 2014. Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, 26(3), 317-342)
- Technology Shocks and Urban Evolutions: Did the Computer Revolution Shift the Fortunes of US Cities. (Berger, T., & Frey, C. B. 2014. In Oxford Martin School Working Paper)
- Bostrom, N. (2014). Hail Mary, Value Porosity, and Utility Diversification.
- Bostrom, N., & Yudkowsky, E. (2014). The ethics of artificial intelligence. In The Cambridge Handbook of Artificial Intelligence (pp. 316-334). Cambridge University Press.
- Dewey, D. (2014, March). Reinforcement learning and the reward engineering principle. In 2014 AAAI Spring Symposium Series.
- Massimi, M. (2014). Philosophy and the Sciences for Everyone. Routledge.
- Why we need friendly AI. (Muehlhauser, L., & Bostrom, N. 2014. Think, 13(36), 41-47)
- Müller, V. C. (2014). Risks of general artificial intelligence. Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, 26(3), 297-301.
- Making fair choices on the path to universal health coverage (Norheim, O., et al. 2014. Final report of the WHO consultative group on equity and universal health coverage. World Health Organization)
- Ord, T. (2014). Overpopulation or underpopulation. In Is the planet full (pp. 46-60). Oxford University Press.
- Drones, counterfactuals, and equilibria: Challenges in evaluating new military technologies. (Ord, T. 2014)
- Global poverty and the demands of morality. (Ord, T. 2014. In Perry, J. (Ed.), God, the Good, and Utilitarianism: Perspectives on Peter Singer (pp. 177-191). Cambridge University Press)
- How 21st-century cities can avoid the fate of 20th-century Detroit. (Frey, C. 2014. Scientific American, 22.)
- Technological change and new work. (Frey, C. & Osborne, M. 2014. Policy Network)
- Monte Carlo model of brain emulation development. (Sandberg, A. (2014). (Working Paper #2014-1). Future of Humanity Institute & Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford)
- Additively efficient universal computers. (Dewey, D. (2014). Proceedings from the Conference on Unconventional Computation and Natural Computation 2015)
- Managing existential risk from emerging technology. (Beckstead, N. & Ord, T. 2014. In M. Walport (Ed.), Managing risk not avoiding it: Key themes and policy options, Annual report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser. London: Government Office for Science)
- 2014 | Is Brain Emulation Dangerous? (Eckersley, P. & Sandberg, A. (2014). Journal of Artificial General Intelligence, 4(3), pp. 170-194.)
- 2014 | Embryo Selection for Cognitive Enhancement: Curiosity or Game-changer? (Shulman, C. Bostrom, N., Global Policy 5, no. 1, 85-92)
- Existential risk prevention as global priority. (Bostrom, N. 2013. Global Policy, 4(1), 15-31)
- The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation. (Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. 2013)
- General purpose intelligence: arguing the orthogonality thesis. (Armstrong, S. 2013. Analysis and Metaphysics, 12, 68)
- More, M., & Vita-More, N. (Eds.). (2013). The transhumanist reader: Classical and contemporary essays on the science, technology, and philosophy of the human future. John Wiley & Sons.
- Rena tankar utan kött och känslor (Sandberg, A. 2013. Axess #5)
- Risks and mitigation strategies for oracle AI. (Armstrong, S. 2013. In V. Müller (Ed.), Philosophy and theory of artificial intelligence. (pp. 335-347))
- 2013 | Anthropic decision theory for self-locating beliefs. (Armstrong, S. (2013). Journal of Philosophy.)
- The autopilot problem. (Armstrong, S., Bradshaw, H., Beckstead, N., Sandberg, A. (2013). In Systemic Risks of Modelling. Defining Systemic Risk)
- Biased error search as a risk of modelling in insurance. (Beckstead, N., Armstrong, S., Sandberg, A. (2013). In Systemic Risks of Modelling.)
- 2013 | The Moral Imperative toward Cost-Effectiveness in Global Health. (Ord, T. (2013). Centre for Global Development.)
- 2013 | Infectious disease, injury, and reproductive health. (Jamison, D., Jha, P., Laxminarayan, R., & Ord, T. (2013). In B. Lomborg (ed.) Global Problems, Smart Solutions: Costs and Benefits (pp. 390–426). Cambridge University Press.)
- 2013 | Rationing and rationality: the cost of avoiding discrimination. (Beckstead, N. & Ord, T. (2013). In N Eyal, et al. (eds.) Inequalities in Health: Concepts, measures, and ethics (pp. 232-239). Oxford University Press.)
- Armstrong, S. (2012). Anthropics: why Probability isn’t enough (Technical Report #2012-2), Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.
- Nash equilibrium of identical agents facing the Unilateralist’s Curse. (Armstrong, S. 2012)
- Thinking inside the box: Controlling and using an oracle ai. (Armstrong, S., Sandberg, A., & Bostrom, N. 2012. Minds and Machines, 22(4), 299-324)
- The superintelligent will: Motivation and instrumental rationality in advanced artificial agents. (Bostrom, N. 2012. Minds and Machines, 22(2), 71-85)
- Dewey, D. (2012). A representation theorem for decisions about causal models. In Artificial General Intelligence (pp. 60-68). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
- Gomila, A., & Müller, V. C. (2012). Challenges for artificial cognitive systems.
- Autonomous cognitive systems in real-world environments: Less control, more flexibility and better interaction. (Müller, V. C. 2012. Cognitive Computation, 4(3), 212-215)
- Theory and philosophy of AI. (Müller, V. C. 2012 (Minds and Machines, 22/2-Special volume))
- Revisiting Turing and His Test: Comprehensiveness, Qualia, and the Real World. (Müller, V. C., & Ayesh, A. 2012)
- How hard is artificial intelligence? Evolutionary arguments and selection effects. (Shulman, C., & Bostrom, N. 2012. Journal of Consciousness Studies, 19(7-8), 103-130)
- 2012 | How we’re predicting AI or failing to. (Armstrong, S., Sotala, K. (2012). Proceedings from Beyond AI Conference.)
- 2012 | Considering cost-effectiveness: the moral perspective. (Ord, T. 2012. In A. Glassman and K. Chalkidou (eds.) Priority setting in health: building institutions for smarter public spending (pp. 15–19). Washington DC: The Centre for Global Development.)
- Information hazards: A typology of potential harms from knowledge. (Bostrom, N. 2011. Review of Contemporary Philosophy, 10, 44)
- Bostrom, N., & Kulczycki, M. (2011). A patch for the simulation argument. Analysis, 71(1), 54-61.
- Machine Intelligence Survey (Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. 2011 , (Technical Report #2011-1). Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
- Infinite ethics. (Bostrom, N. 2011. Analysis and Metaphysics, 10, 9-59)
- Probing the improbable: methodological challenges for risks with low probabilities and high stakes. (Ord, T., Hillerbrand, R., & Sandberg, A. 2010. Journal of Risk Research, 13(2), 191-205)
- Armstrong, S. (2010). Einstein connections and involutions via parabolic geometries. Journal of Geometry and Physics, 60(10), 1424-1440.
- Cirkovic, M. M., Sandberg, A., & Bostrom, N. (2010). Anthropic shadow: Observation selection effects and human extinction risks. Risk analysis, 30(10), 1495-1506.
- 2010 | The Future of Humanity. (Bostrom, N. (2010). In J.-K. B. Olsen, S. A. Pedersen & V. F. Hendricks (Eds.), Companion to philosophy of technology, pp. 551-558. Wiley-Blackwell.)
- 2010 | Utility indifference. (Armstrong, S. (2010). (Technical Report #2010-1). Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
- Learning Structured Preferences. (Evans, O., Bergen, L. & Tenenbaum, J.B. (2010). Proceedings of the Thirty-Second Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society)
- Bostrom, N., & Savulescu, J. (Eds.). (2009). Human enhancement (pp. 131-154). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Bostrom, N. (2009). The future of humanity (pp. 186-215). Palgrave Macmillan UK.
- Bostrom, N. (2009). The simulation argument: Some explanations. Analysis, anp063.
- Cognitive enhancement: methods, ethics, regulatory challenges. (Bostrom, N., & Sandberg, A. 2009. Science and engineering ethics, 15(3), 311-341)
- Cognitive enhancement: Methods, ethics, regulatory challenges. (Bostrom, N., & Sandberg, A. 2009. Science and engineering ethics, 15(3), 311-341.)
- Bostrom, N., & Savulescu, J. (2009). Human enhancement ethics: The state of the debate.
- Brockman, M. (2009). What’s Next?: Dispatches on the Future of Science. Vintage.
- Hanson, R. (2009). Enhancing our truth orientation. Human Enhancement, 357-372.
- On market maker functions. (Hanson, R. 2009. The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3(1), 61)
- A manipulator can aid prediction market accuracy. (Hanson, R., & Oprea, R. 2009. Economica, 76(302), 304-314)
- An experimental test of combinatorial information markets. (Ledyard, J., Hanson, R., & Ishikida, T. 2009. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 69(2), 182-189)
- Olsen, J. K. B., Pedersen, S. A., & Hendricks, V. F. (2012). A Companion to the Philosophy of Technology. John Wiley & Sons.
- Rorschach, Ozymandias, and Dr. Manhattan. Can good, but uncertain ends justify any means? (Hillerbrand, R., & Sandberg, A. 2009. In B. Dyer (Ed.), The Philosophy of supervillains. Chicago, IL: Open Court)
- Brain Boosters. (Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. 2009. In P. Healey (Ed.) Unnatural Selection: The Challenges of Engineering Tomorrow’s People)
- Invited chapter for the Institute for ethics and emerging technologies. (Bostrom, N. (2009). Riccardo Campa, Nick Bostrom, James Hughes (sociologist), techno-progressivism, science and technology … change, public policy, humanity, academia. Alphascript Publishing)
- 2009 | Pascal’s mugging. (Bostrom, N. (2009). Analysis, 69(3), 443-445.)
- Help or hinder: Bayesian models of social goal inference. (Ullman, T.D., Baker, C.L., Macindoe, O., Evans, O., Goodman, N.D., & Tenenbaum, J.B. (2009). Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 22, 1874-1882)
- The promise of prediction markets. (Arrow, K., et al. 2008. Science, 320(5878), 877)
- Bostrom, N. (2008). Drugs can be used to treat more than disease. Nature, 451(7178), 520.
- Bostrom, N. (2008). Moralist, meet scientist. Nature, 453(7195), 593-594.
- Bostrom, N. (2008). Where are they? Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing. Technology Review, 72-78.
- Bostrom, N. (2008). Why I want to be a posthuman when I grow up. In Medical enhancement and posthumanity (pp. 107-136). Springer Netherlands.
- Global catastrophic risks. (Bostrom, N., & Cirkovic, M. M. 2008. Oxford University Press)
- Bostrom, N., & Sandberg, A. (2008). The wisdom of nature: an evolutionary heuristic for human enhancement. Human enhancement, 375-416.
- Broderick, D. (2008). Year million: Science at the far edge of knowledge. Atlas and Company.
- Making sense of medical paternalism. (Hanson, R. 2008. Medical hypotheses, 70(5), 910-913)
- Unnatural selection: the challenges of engineering tomorrow’s people. (Healey, P., & Rayner, S. (Eds.). 2008. Earthscan)
- Becoming More Than Human: Technology and the Post-Human Condition. (Marsen, S. 2008. Technology, 19, 1)
- Ravelingien, A., & Sandberg, A. (2008). Sleep better than medicine? Ethical issues related to wake enhancement. Journal of medical ethics, 34(9), e9-e9.
- How can we reduce the risk of human extinction. (Sandberg, A., Matheny, J., & Cirkovic, M. 2008. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 9)
- Human Dignity And Bioethics: Essays Commissioned by the President’s Council On Bioethics. (Schulman, A. (2008). Government Printing Office)
- Record of the Workshop on Policy Foresight and Global Catastrophic Risk. (Tickell, C., et al. 2008. James Martin Institute for science and civilisation, University of Oxford)
- Structure of the global catastrophe. Risks of human extinction in the XXI century. (Turchin, A. 2008. Lulu. com)
- Reshaping the human condition: Exploring human enhancement. (Zonneveld, L., Dijstelbloem, H., & Ringoir, D. (2008). Rathenau Institute)
- The dread planet: Why finding fossils on Mars would be extremely bad news for humanity (Bostrom, N. 2008. The Boston Globe.)
- Dignity and enhancement. (Bostrom, N. (2008). In human dignity and bioethics: Essays commissioned by the president’s council on bioethics, (pp. 173-207). Washington, D.C.: President’s Council on Bioethics)
- How to enhance human beings. (Bostrom, N. 2008. In M. Brockman (Ed.), What’s Next? Dispatches on the Future of Science: Original Essays from a New Generation of Scientists.Random House.)
- Economics of brain emulation. (Hanson, R. 2008. Proceedings from Unnatural Selection : The Challenges of Engineering Tomorrow’s People. London.)
- Parenthetical word. (Bostrom, N. 2008. In I. V. Sledzevsky and V. Prajd, Alexei Turchin’s structure of the global catastrophe: Risks of human extinction in the XXI century, a series: Dialogues about the future, Vol 2 (pp. 22).)
- Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap (Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008). (Technical Report #2008‐3), Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
- Global Catastrophic Risks Survey (Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008). (Technical Report #2008-1), Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
- 2008 | Letter from utopia. (Bostrom, N. (2008). Studies in Ethics, Law, and Technology, 2(1), 1-7.)
- 2008 | Everything. (Bostrom, N. (2008). In J. Brockman (Ed.), What have you changed your mind about?: Today’s leading minds rethink everything (pp. 61-63). New York: Harper Perennial.)
- 2008 | Foreword. (Bostrom, N. (2008). In R. Baron (Ed.), Axiological anthropology and the promotion of mental health. London, UK: Educational Trust for Health Improvement Through Cognitive Strategies.)
- 2008 | Response to Open Peer Commentaries on “The Scourge: Moral Implications of Natural Embryo Loss”. (Ord, T. (2008). . American Journal of Bioethics, 8(7).)
- Nanoethics: the ethical and social implications of nanotechnology. (Allhoff, F. 2007. John Wiley & Sons)
- Sleeping Beauty and self-location: A hybrid model. (Bostrom, N. 2007. Synthese, 157(1), 59-78)
- Technological revolutions: ethics and policy in the dark. (Bostrom, N. 2007. Nanoscale: Issues and perspectives for the nano century, 129-152)
- Bostrom, N. (2007) In defence of posthuman dignity. In Chadwick, R. (Ed.) The bioethics reader: editors’ choice.
- Chakraborty, S., Sandberg, A., & Greenfield, S. A. (2007). Differential dynamics of transient neuronal assemblies in visual compared to auditory cortex. Experimental brain research, 182(4), 491-498.
- Insider trading and prediction markets. (Hanson, R. 2007. JL Econ. & Pol’y, 4, 449)
- The Hanson-Hughes debate on the crack of a future dawn. (Hanson, R. 2007. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 16(1), 99-126)
- The policy analysis market (a thwarted experiment in the use of prediction markets for public policy) (Hanson, R. 2007. Innovations, 2(3), 73-88)
- Hanson, R. (2007). Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction. Global catastrophic risks, 1, 357.
- Showing that you care: The evolution of health altruism. (Hanson, R. 2007. Medical hypotheses, 70(4), 724-742)
- New waves in applied ethics. (Ryberg, J., Petersen, T. S., & Wolf, C. 2007)
- Three big problems. (Bostrom, N. 2007. In C. Tandy (Ed.), Death and anti-death, volume 5: Thirty years after Loren Eiseley (1907-1977) (pp. 147-165). Palo Alto, CA: Ria University Press.)
- Technological revolutions and the problem of prediction. (Bostrom, N. 2007. In P. Lin, J. Moor, J. Weckert & F. Allhoff (Eds.), Nanoethics: The ethical and social implications of nanotechnology pp.101-118. Wiley Interscience.)
- Ethical principles in the creation of artificial minds. (Bostrom, N. 2007. In Analysis and metaphysics. (Vol. 6 pp. 141-143).)
- Smart policy: Cognitive enhancement and the public interest. (Bostrom, N. 2007. In L. Zonneveld, H. Dijstelbloem & D. Ringoir (Eds.), Reshaping the human condition: exploring human enhancement. (pp. 29-37). Veenman Drukkers, Rotterdam, Netherlands: Rathenau Institute)
- Biotechnology and the promise of tailor-made medicine. (Sandberg, A. (2007). In F. Ficai (Ed.), Unlocking ideas: Essays from the Amigo Society (pp. 61-67). London, UK: Stockholm Network)
- Definitions of enhancement, review of cognitive enhancement technologies, review of ethical topics in cognitive enhancement. (Sandberg, A. 2007. Reports from ENHANCE Project)
- Cognitive enhancement: Can we afford to ban It? (Sandberg, A. 2007. Proceedings from Enhancement and Genetics Conference. University of Jena, Germany)
- Transhumanist valuing. (Bostrom, N. 2007. Hastings Center Report, Vol: September/October)
- Three big problems. (Bostrom, N. & Roache, R. 2007. In C. Tandy (Ed.), Death and anti death (pp. 147-165). Palo Alto, CA: Ria University Press.)
- Ethical and political challenges to the prospect of life extension. (Bostrom, N. 2007. Invited article for World Demographics Association Proceedings)
- 2007 | Human vs. posthuman. (Bostrom, N. (2007). Hastings Center Report, 37(5).)
- 2007 | Observation selection theory and cosmological fine-tuning. (Bostrom, N. (2007). In B. Carr (Ed.) Universe or Multiverse? Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.)
- Ethical and political challenges to the prospect of life extension. (Bostrom, N. (2007). Proceedings from World Demographics Association Proceedings 2006)
- Ethical principles in the creation of artificial minds. (Bostrom, N. (2007). Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, 6, pp. 183-184)
- Technological revolutions: Ethics and policy in the dark. (Bostrom, N. (2007). In J. Savulescu (Ed.), Ethics of east and west: How they contribute to the quest for wisdom. Oxford, UK: Oxford Uehiro Center for Practical Ethics)
- In the great silence there is great hope. (Bostrom, N. (2007). MIT Technology Review, (May/June), 72-77)
- Bostrom, N., & Ord, T. (2006). The Reversal Test: Eliminating Status Quo Bias in Applied Ethics. Ethics, 116(4), 656-679.
- Bostrom, N. (2006). A short history of transhumanist thought. Analysis and Metaphysics, 5(1-2), 63-95.
- Bostrom, N. (2006). Quantity of experience: brain-duplication and degrees of consciousness. Minds and Machines, 16(2), 185-200.
- Bostrom, N. (2006). What is a singleton. Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, 5(2), 48-54.
- Hahn, R. W., & Tetlock, P. C. (2006). Information markets: A new way of making decisions. Reg-Markets Books and Monographs, 06-03.
- Decision markets for policy advice. Promoting the general welfare. (Hanson, R. 2006. American democracy and the political economy of government performance, 151-173.)
- Hanson, R. (2006). Uncommon priors require origin disputes. Theory and decision, 61(4), 319-328.
- Five nanotech social scenarios. Nanotechnology (Hanson, R. 2006. Societal ImplicationsIndividual Perspectives, 109)
- Hanson, R. D. (2006). Drift diffusion in mangled worlds quantum mechanics. In Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 462(2069), 1619-1627.
- Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market. (Hanson, R., Oprea, R., & Porter, D. 2006. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 60(4), 449-459)
- Miller, P., & Wilsdon, J. (2006). Better Humans? The politics of human enhancement and life extension.
- Converging cognitive enhancements. (Sandberg, A., & Bostrom, N. 2006. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1093(1), 201-227)
- Den Hänsynsfulla Taggen [‘The considerate tag’]: On the impact of identification technology. (Sandberg, A. (2006). Eudoxa Policy Study #9, Eudoxa AB)
- Den forstaerkede hjerne. (Sandberg, A. 2006. In G. Balling & K. Lippert-Rasmussen (Eds.), Det menneskelige eksperiment (pp. 75-114). Museum Tusculanum Forlag, Denmark)
- Accept interdependence. (Hanson, R. 2006. Proceedings from Ci’num The Digital Civilizations Forum 2006.)
- Do we live in a computer simulation? (Bostrom, N. 2006. New Scientist, 192(2579))
- 2006 | Nanoethics and technological revolutions: A précis. (Bostrom, N. (2006). Nanotechnology Perceptions: A Review of Ultraprecision Engineering and Nanotechnology, 2(1b, May Issue).)
- Growing up: Human nature and enhancement technologies. (Bostrom, N. (2006). In E. Mitchell (Ed.), Tomorrow’s people: the challenge to human nature)
- 2006 | Desire, time, and ethical weight. (Bostrom, N. (2006). Analysis and Metaphysics, 4(2), 59-83.)
- Ethical issues in advanced artificial intelligence. (Bostrom, N. 2006. Review of Contemporary Philosophy, 5(1-2), 66-73.)
- 2006 | Dinosaurs, dodos, humans? (Bostrom, N. (2006). Global Agenda, the annual publication of the World Economic Forum, (January), 230-231.)
- How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe. (Bostrom, N., & Tegmark, M. 2005. Nature, 438(7069), 754)
- A history of transhumanist thought. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 14(1), 1-25)
- In defense of posthuman dignity. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Bioethics, 19(3), 202-214)
- Recent developments in the ethics, science, and politics of life extension. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Ageing Horizons, 3(2005), 28-33)
- The fable of the dragon tyrant. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Journal of Medical Ethics, 31(5), 273-277)
- The simulation argument: Reply to Weatherson. (Bostrom, N. 2005. The Philosophical Quarterly, 55(218), 90-97)
- Why Make a Matrix? And Why You Might Be in One. (Bostrom, N. 2005. More Matrix and Philosophy: Revolutions and Reloaded Decoded., ed. William Irwin (Chicago: IL: Open Court Publishing Company, 2005))
- de Magalhaes, J. P., & Sandberg, A. (2005). Cognitive aging as an extension of brain development: A model linking learning, brain plasticity, and neurodegeneration. Mechanisms of ageing and development, 126(10), 1026-1033.
- Hanson, R. (2005). Fear of Death and Muddled Thinking – It Is So Much Worse Than You Think.
- Hanson, R. D. (2005). Designing real terrorism futures. Public Choice, 128(1-2), 257-274.
- An autocatalytic model of STDP timing from slow calcium-dependent signals. (Sandberg, A., & Fransén, E. 2005. Neurocomputing, 65, 603-608)
- In defence of posthuman dignity. (Bostrom, N. 2005. In Bioethics. Vol. 19(3), pp. 202-214.)
- Transhumanist values. (Bostrom, N. 2005. In Review of contemporary philosophy. Vol. 4, No. 1-2, pp. 87-101)
- Understanding Quine’s thesis of indeterminacy. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Linguistic and philosophical investigations. Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 60-96)
- The future of humankind: Heaven, hell, with stops along the way. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Review of Radical evolution: The promise and peril of enhancing our minds, our bodies and what it means to be human by Joel Garreau, Scientific American)
- Tekniken befriar kroppen [‘Technology frees the body: the future of medical technology, the patient and health care’] (Sandberg, A., Sanchez A., Ingdahl, W. (2005). Health Consumer Powerhouse.)
- 2005 | Ethical principles in the creation of artificial minds. (Bostrom, N. (2005). Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, 6.)
- 2005 | A short history of transhumanist thought. (Bostrom, N. (2005). In R. Ettinger (Ed.), The prospect of immortality, with comments by others. Palo Alto, CA: Ria University Press.)
- 2005 | Re: The benevolent dragon. (Bostrom, N. (2005). . Journal of Medical Ethics, 31(5), pp. 273.)
- Recent arguments about life-extension. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Aging Horizons, 3(Autumn/Winter), pp. 28-34)
- Scientist find death can damage your health. (Bostrom, N. (2005). Journal of Medical Ethics, 31(5), pp. 273)
- Transhumanism-The World’s Most Dangerous Idea? (Bostrom, N. 2004. Foreign Policy)
- Computational memory models. Sandberg, A. (2004. Lund University cognitive studies #116)
- Free will: What’s the transhumanist position? (Bostrom, N. (2004). BetterHumans.
- 2004 | The transhumanist FAQ v.2.1. (Bostrom, N. (2004). World Transhumanist Association.)
- Astronomical waste: The opportunity cost of delayed technological development. (Bostrom, N. 2003. Utilitas, 15(03), 308-314)
- Are you living in a computer simulation? (Bostrom, N. 2003. The Philosophical Quarterly, 53(211), 243-255)
- Ethical issues in advanced artificial intelligence. (Bostrom, N. 2003. Science Fiction and Philosophy: From Time Travel to Superintelligence, 277-284)
- Bostrom, N. (2003). Human genetic enhancements: a transhumanist perspective. The Journal of Value Inquiry, 37(4), 493-506.
- Bostrom, N. (2003). Taking intelligent machines seriously: reply to my critics. Futures, 35(8), 901-906.
- The mysteries of self-locating belief and anthropic reasoning. (Bostrom, N. 2003. The Harvard Review of Philosophy, 11(1), 59-73)
- Bostrom, N. (2003). Transhumanist Values, Ethical Issues for the 21st Century, ed. Frederick Adams.
- When machines outsmart humans. (Bostrom, N. 2003. Futures, 35(7), 759-764)
- Bostrom, N., & Cirkovic, M. M. (2003). The doomsday argument and the self-indication assumption: reply to Olum. The Philosophical Quarterly, 53(210), 83-91.
- Lansner, A., Fransén, E., & Sandberg, A. (2003). Cell assembly dynamics in detailed and abstract attractor models of cortical associative memory. Theory in Biosciences, 122(1), 19-36.
- A working memory model based on fast Hebbian learning. (Sandberg, A., Tegnér, J., & Lansner, A. 2003. Network: Computation in Neural Systems, 14(4), 789-802)
- Human extinction. (Bostrom, N. 2003. In P. Demeny & G. McNicoll (Eds.), Encyclopedia of population. New York: Macmillan)
- The simulation argument: Why the probability that you are living in the Matrix is quite high. (Bostrom, N. 2003. T Times higher educational supplement)
- Eudoxa policy study #2: On idea futures – making politicians put their money where their mouth is. (Sandberg, A. (2003). Eudoxa policy study #2: On idea futures – making politicians put their money where their mouth is, (tr. Lene Johansen). Eudoxa AB.)
- Anthropic bias: Observation selection effects in science and philosophy. (Bostrom, N. 2013. Routledge)
- Existential risks. (Bostrom, N. 2002. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 9(1), 1-31)
- Self-locating belief in big worlds: Cosmology’s missing link to observation. (Bostrom, N. 2002. The Journal of philosophy, 99(12), 607-623)
- Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation. (Hanson, R. D. 2002. George Mason University working paper: George Mason University.)
- Synaptic depression as an intrinsic driver of reinstatement dynamics in an attractor network. (Sandberg, A., & Lansner, A. 2002. Neurocomputing, 44, 615-622)
- A Bayesian attractor network with incremental learning. (Sandberg, A., Lansner, A., Petersson, K. M., & Ekeberg. 2002. Network: Computation in neural systems, 13(2), 179-194)
- “Som egenmäktiga gudar”: den svenska debatten om gen-och bioteknik på 1970-och 1980-talen. (Sandberg, A., Sanchez, A., & Ingdahl, W. 2002. Timbro)
- Kong Markatta II – en transhumanists erkendelser. (Sandberg, A. 2002. In G. Ballig, Homo sapiens 2.0 – Når teknologien kryber ind under huden. Gads Forlag, Denmark)
- The Doomsday Argument Adam & Eve, UN++, and Quantum Joe. (Bostrom, N. 2001. Synthese, 127(3), 359-387)
- The meta-Newcomb problem. (Bostrom, N. 2001. Analysis, 61(272), 309-310)
- Selective enhancement of recall through plasticity modulation in an autoassociative memory. (Sandberg, A., Lansner, A., & Petersson, K. M. 2001. Neurocomputing, 38, 867-873)
- Transhumanism An idea whose time has come. (Bostrom, N. (2001). In Doctor Tandy’s first guide to life extension and transhumanity. Palo Alto, CA: Ria University Press)
- Cortical integration: How to store complex representations in long-term memory. (Bostrom, N. 2000)
- Observer-relative chances in anthropic reasoning? (Bostrom, N. 2000. Erkenntnis, 52(1), 93-108)
- Cirkovic, M. M., & Bostrom, N. (2000). Cosmological constant and the final anthropic hypothesis. Astrophysics and Space Science, 274(4), 675-687.
- A palimpsest memory based on an incremental Bayesian learning rule. (Sandberg, A., Lansner, A., Petersson, K. M., & Ekeberg, Ö. 2000. Neurocomputing, 32, 987-994)
- What is transhumanism? (Bostrom, N. 2000. Sawaal, August issue.)
- The doomsday argument is alive and kicking. (Bostrom, N. 1999. Mind, 108(431), 539-551)
- The physics of information processing superobjects: daily life among the Jupiter brains. (Sandberg, A. 1999. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 5(1), 1-34)
- Predictions from philosophy. (Bostrom, N. 1999. Coloquia Manilana (PDCIS). Vol. 7.)